Impact of Long-Term Planned Power Outages Caused by Future Nankai Trough Earthquakes on Manufacturing Production and the Mitigation Measures

In the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake, thermal and nuclear power plants were simultaneously damaged, resulting in a rapid decline in power supply capacity, which necessitated the implementation of planned power outages to forcibly reduce power demand. Subsequently, Japanese power sector administrations established policies for planned power outages following large-scale disasters. Meanwhile, the potential occurrence of the Nankai Trough earthquake raised concerns, as this earthquake may lead to power shortages exceeding those experienced during the Great East Japan Earthquake. This study aims to assess the production impacts and explore countermeasures for the manufacturing industry, which would face significant impacts from long-term planned power outages. Focusing on the Kansai region, which is expected to sustain relatively minor direct damage from the Nankai Trough earthquake, this study establishes scenarios of planned power outages and identifies the impacts on manufacturing industries under such conditions through a questionnaire survey. Based on the findings, the study discusses the directions for countermeasures from the perspectives of both companies and power sector administration to mitigate the impacts of planned power outages.