The role of historical and contemporary settlement factors in shaping the size of rural primary schools in Poland: a multi-stage regression analysis

School size is an essential characteristic of the school network and one of the key conditions for the functioning and financing of schools. The main aim of this article is to assess the extent to which school size results from the influence of settlement and population factors (both historical and contemporary). We analysed data for all rural and urban-rural communes in Poland in 2022. A unique three-stage research procedure was applied, combining different categories of regression models (nationwide, regional, and geographically weighted regression [GWR]). The results indicate that settlement and population conditions are significant factors that shape the average school size. Their impact at the national scale is relatively small, but – according to the results of GWR modelling – it is strong in the vicinity of the largest cities and decreases with distance. In addition, four regional models seem to suggest the role of historical factors. These results, however, should be regarded as research artefacts reflecting the specificity of the spatial distribution of contemporary urbanisation processes.