Regional Divergence in Long-Term Trends of the Marine Heatwave over the East China Sea

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) pose a serious threat to the marine ecosystems and fishery resources in the East China Sea (ECS). Based on National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature High Resolution version 2 data, this study investigated the regional divergence in long-term trends of MHWs in the ECS from 1982 to 2023. The principal findings were as follows. Concerning MHWs, the coastal waters of China from northern Jiangsu coast to northeast of Taiwan Island experienced a relatively high annual average frequency, the longest duration, largest number of total days, strongest intensity, and the most pronounced seasonal signals. Additionally, the areas along the Kuroshio path showed significant levels of frequency, duration, and total days, but with comparatively weak intensity. In the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, EOF1 of the total days and cumulative intensity exhibited notable variation along the path of the Kuroshio and its offshoots, and in Chinese coastal areas. EOF2 showed significantly more conspicuous variation in areas extending from the Yangtze River Estuary to the northern Jiangsu coast. Furthermore, the MHW indices generally showed a positive trend in the ECS from 1982 to 2023. Importantly, the regions with high annual average MHW indices were also characterized by a significantly positive increasing trend. Moderate (79.10%) and strong (19.94%) events were most prevalent, whereas severe (0.82%) and extreme (0.14%) events occurred infrequently. The enhanced solar radiation and the reduced latent heat loss were the main contributing factors of MHWs in the ECS. These findings provide valuable insights into the ecological environment and resources of the ECS as a marine pastoral area.