Growing divergences: a research note forecasting ultimate childlessness by education in the Nordic countries

Recent period trends in the Nordic countries show rapid declines in first births, particularly amonglower-educated men and women. This study translates these period changes into cohort patterns andanalyzes observed and forecasted ultimate childlessness by education for men and women born1970–1987/88 in Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden using register-based data. Weapply three forecasting methods: freeze rates, five-year extrapolation, and a nonparametric approachbased on historical first-birth probabilities. Results reveal the steepest increases in ultimatechildlessness among the lowest educated, approaching as high as 40% among low-educated womenand 50% among low-educated men in some of the countries. Among the higher tertiary educated,childlessness is overall lower and remains relatively stable. By contrast, men with lower tertiaryeducation show notable increases in childlessness, in some cases reaching levels similar to or higherthan those of upper-secondary-educated men. While overall childlessness in Denmark remainsstable, it exhibits the fastest widening educational gap. These findings underscore a growingeducational polarization in the transition to parenthood across the Nordic societies, with women’schildlessness patterns increasingly resembling those of men—a marked shift in the region’s fertilitylandscape.