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October 2, 2025

Comparison of ARIMA and SARIMA Methods for Non-Oil and Gas Export Forecasting in East Java

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Authors

DGDinda Galuh Guminta

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Overview

This analysis demonstrates ARIMA outperformed SARIMA in forecasting non-oil exports in East Java, indicating model suitability in trade planning.

Key Points

  • ARIMA consistently achieved lower error rates than SARIMA, revealing its strength in forecasting non-oil exports.
  • The Root Mean Square Error for ARIMA was significantly better at 0.116 compared to SARIMA’s 0.983.
  • Analysis utilized monthly time series data from January 2007 to January 2024, highlighting substantial trade dynamics.
  • Findings underline the importance of model selection in economic forecasting for effective export planning.

Cite This Study

Dinda Galuh Guminta (2025) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/68de6f3683cbc991d0a223eahttps://doi.org/10.33005/jasid.v1i1.2
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