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September 20, 2025

Analysis and Evaluation of ARIMA and SARIMA Models Performance in Time Series Forecasting: An Applied Study

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Authors

HAHossen Mohammed Al-Mahdi Al-Sharif

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Overview

Analysis demonstrates SARIMA's superior performance in forecasting oil production time series, indicating significant seasonal pattern capture.

Key Points

  • The SARIMA model outperformed the ARIMA model for forecasting oil production time series.
  • Forecast evaluation metrics include RMSE, MAE, and MAPE, confirming prediction accuracy.
  • Stationarity was tested using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test to ensure model reliability.
  • Recommendations include using advanced techniques like Grid Search for optimal parameter tuning.

Cite This Study

Hossen Mohammed Al-Mahdi Al-Sharif (2025) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/68d469c831b076d99fa666dchttps://doi.org/10.64943/ljmas.v3i2.89
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