Stochastic modeling of vehicle impact on reinforced concrete bridge piers: Assessment of structural reliability and resilience

Vehicle impacts impose high strain-rate dynamic loads on reinforced concrete (RC) bridge piers, leading to complex material responses and an apparent strength increase, typically represented by the Dynamic Increase Factor (DIF). The initial collision often damages the concrete cover, redirecting load to the transverse reinforcement and altering the pier’s axial and flexural performance. This study presents a streamlined mathematical model that evaluates damage severity, estimates failure probability, and calculates a reliability index for impacted piers. Compared to conventional probabilistic models, such as Normal, Log-normal, Weibull, Allen and Standardized Allen distributions, the proposed model yields slightly conservative but more consistent estimates of residual capacity, offering a more reliable assessment of structural performance under uncertainty. Validation through uncertainty analysis reveals a small deviation of ±4.3%, supporting the model’s robustness. The results provide practical guidance for damage evaluation, re-strengthening strategies, and forensic investigations, making the model a reliable and cost-effective tool for engineers assessing RC bridge pier serviceability and resilience after high velocity vehicle impact.