Analyzing the Impact of Export Share to the United States and China on Carbon Dioxide Emissions

This paper examines the relationship between export share and carbon emissions. In particular, this study investigates whether exporting to different countries, such as the United States and China, leads to distinct environmental impacts. It also analyzes the influence of COVID-19 and climate change negotiations, such as the Paris Agreement, on carbon emissions, using data from 52 countries spanning 2003 to 2022 and controlling for variables including GDP per capita, export-to-GDP ratio, and agricultural land. The analysis employs fixed effects and System Generalized Method of Moments (system GMM) estimation techniques to address unobserved heterogeneity and potential endogeneity. The findings indicate a meaningful relationship between export share and carbon dioxide emissions. Specifically, a 1% increase in export share to the United States is associated with a 0.0021% decrease in per capita carbon emissions (p < 0.10), whereas a 1% increase in exports to China corresponds to a 0.0036% increase in emissions (p < 0.10). Furthermore, the analysis demonstrates that COVID-19 played a role in reducing emissions during the pandemic. However, the Paris Agreement has not yielded the anticipated reductions. Nonetheless, country-specific factors, including those related to climate change negotiations, continue contributing to variation in emissions outcomes.