Predicting First-Year Academic Success: The Influence of Socioeconomic and Educational Backgrounds among First-Generation Scholarship Students

Objective: This study examines the factors influencing the academic success of first-year students who are first-generation scholarship recipients (FGCS) at Universitas X, with a focus on the impact of socioeconomic background, parental education, and entrance exam scores. Uniquely, this study combines predictive modeling with a detailed analysis of regional, school, and familial factors, providing a comprehensive early-warning system to identify at-risk students and guide targeted interventions. Using a multivariate quantitative approach, data from 511 FGCS recipients from the 2021–2024 cohorts were analyzed. Descriptive statistics reveal significant disparities in academic performance across regions, school types, and study programs. Students from Java and Sumatra achieved the highest average GPAs (3.29 and 3.21, respectively), with state school graduates performing particularly well (average GPA: 3.24). Conversely, students from private schools in Papua and Maluku faced significant academic challenges, with GPAs below the average (2.55 and 2.94). Multiple linear regression modeling, which includes entrance exam scores, predicts first-year GPA with a 6.08% error margin, providing a reliable tool for early detection of academic risk. The regression model shows that entrance exam scores in Bahasa Indonesia and TPA, as well as regional background, significantly influence academic performance. Specifically, students from Sulawesi (β = 0.203) and Java (β = 0.175) are predicted to achieve the highest GPAs, followed by students from Nusa Tenggara (β = 0.118), Sumatra (β = 0.114), Kalimantan (β = 0.101), Papua (β = 0.068), and Maluku (β = 0.059). These results indicate clear regional disparities in predicted academic outcomes. The study concludes with evidence-based policy recommendations for targeted academic support programs and interventions to enhance the academic success of FGCS, particularly those from underprivileged regions and schools.