A new village-level panel reveals hidden scale of drought-driven agricultural job losses across rural India

Abstract Droughts threaten agricultural livelihoods for millions, particularly in developing countries. In India, agriculture supports half of the 550-million-strong workforce, yet drought impacts on agricultural job losses remain poorly quantified, partially due to scarce labor-market data. Here we present results from a new village-level panel dataset linking employment data from two Indian population censuses across 450,000 villages with high-resolution (0.05°) climate data. Each additional drought month during the growing season (June–October) reduces male agricultural labor participation by approximately 1.0 percentage point for moderate droughts and 1.2 percentage points for severe droughts one year later. Although employment partially rebounds three years post-drought, recovery does not offset initial losses, causing lasting job reductions. Applying CMIP6 mid-century projections (SSP245 and SSP585), we estimate by 2050 India will experience 1.5–2.0 additional months of moderate drought and 1.2–1.6 additional months of severe drought annually, further destabilizing rural labor markets amid an employment crisis.