Impact of weather conditions on forecasting the number of road accidents in Poland

The incidence of road traffic accidents in Poland remains significantly high. When compared to the average levels recorded across European Union (EU) member states, Poland's rate is approximately 1.3 times greater. The COVID-19 pandemic contributed to a temporary reduction in road accidents. The primary objective of this study is to forecast the number of road accidents in Poland under varying weather conditions. The analysis is based on monthly accident data for the years 2007-2021, obtained from national police records. Using this historical data, projections for the years 2022-2024 were developed. The findings suggest that, despite minor downward trends, the level of road traffic incidents is likely to remain comparable to pre-pandemic patterns. It is important to note, however, that the pandemic has introduced distortions that may affect the accuracy of the forecast. The predictive analysis was conducted in Statistica using selected time series models. Forecasts for 2022-2024 reveal that the majority of accidents are expected to occur under favorable weather conditions, with an average of 24,342 incidents. This is likely associated with increased traffic volume during such conditions. Nevertheless, extreme weather events pose heightened risks: heavy rainfall can lead to as many as 4,347 accidents, while strong winds may contribute to up to 12,880 incidents. Additionally, intense sunlight—through reduced visibility—accounts for an average of 4,150 accidents annually. Although fog and snowfall are less frequent (averaging 109 and 352 incidents respectively), they represent particularly hazardous conditions due to compromised road traction.