Forecasting of Monkeypox Outbreak Trends in the most Affected Countries: A Join point regression modelling approach

Background: The global resurgence of Mpox has emerged as a significant public health issue, with cases identified in over 116 countries by 2024. This study leverages joinpoint regression and ARIMA forecasting models to analyze Mpox trends and project future outbreaks, underscoring the need for adaptable public health responses due to varied virulence across strains. Methods: Using joinpoint regression, we analyzed changes in Mpox case trends from January 1 to September 15, 2024, and employed ARIMA models to forecast future outbreaks in the ten most affected countries for next ten weeks. Results: The analysis revealed significant fluctuations in Mpox cases, particularly in the United States and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Joinpoint regression detected crucial shifts in epidemic trends, while ARIMA models forecasted short-term and long-term trajectories. By October 24, 2024, Spain is predicted to report the highest new cases at 21, followed by the DRC with 9. France and Germany are expected to see 7 new cases each. In contrast, Brazil, Colombia, the UK, and the US might report only 1 new case, with no new cases expected in Mexico and Peru. The UK and US are projected to have the highest cumulative cases at 240,119 and 239,976, respectively, with Brazil and the DRC following with 87,405 and 61,867 cases. Conclusion: This study highlights the importance of advanced modeling in predicting Mpox outbreaks and guiding tailored public health strategies. These forecasts are crucial for improving preparedness and response efforts against Mpox and other infectious diseases.