Offshore Wind Farm Operations under Reliability Uncertainty: A Financial and Environmental Impact Assessment

Abstract The study addresses a critical challenge for the wind industry: rapidly evolving turbine designs are increasing uncertainty in component reliability, with significant consequences for both financial viability and environmental performance during operations. To tackle this, a methodology is developed that loosely couples a discrete-event O&M simulation model with a life cycle assessment (LCA) model, enabling quantification of annualized O&M costs (k€/MW/year) and CO2-equivalent emissions (kt/year) across the operational lifetime. The methodology is demonstrated through a case study of the future IJmuiden Ver wind farm, using wind farm and operational parameters derived from tender documentation and consultations with offshore stakeholders. Reliability uncertainty is captured through two scenarios: (i) constant failure rates and (ii) non-constant, component-specific Weibull patterns, both using identical mean times to failure. Results show that average O&M costs increase from 71.5 k€/MW/year to 77.5 k€/MW/year (+8.4%), while average emissions rise from 16.5 kt/year to 19.0 kt/year (+15.2%) when moving from scenario (i) to scenario (ii). These differences highlight how reliability uncertainties can be particularly detrimental, as they may trigger unplanned financial spikes in annual budgets and risk breaching emissions thresholds that are increasingly subject to monitoring and compliance. The findings aim to support developers, investors, and policymakers in designing offshore wind projects with holistic, risk-informed O&M strategies that are both economically viable and environmentally sustainable.