Modeling of complex systems via Bayesian belief network

The article analyzes the factors that have an impact on the activation of complex natural processes and their catastrophic consequences. Intermediate and resulting indicators are chosen to describe and evaluate the course of the processes under consideration. The construction of the Bayesian Belief Network for modeling of complex natural processes on the Southern Coast of the Crimea, its structure, its training with the help of experts filling in conditional probabilities tables is considered. Also the filling in the unconditional probabilities tables of top-level vertices according to observation data is considered. The importance of the controlling factor and the modeling of various scenarios of the course of natural processes are discussed