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Global economic power has shifted from the Atlantic waters to the Indo-Pacific waters. China and India are robust rising powers competing for ultimate regional and global politico-economic opportunities. Energy has become a common factor for both nations, leading to overlapping spheres of influence, strategic responses, and national interests. This article addresses the puzzle of the absence of military confrontations over the issues of energy sources in circumstances that carry enormous potential for conflict. This study aims to contribute to filling the research gap in interpreting the rivalry between China and India over energy resources. The analysis extends through an eclectic approach, incorporating assorted through assorted debates from different realist thought strands. It treats the theories of international relations as emphasising the structure of international relations. However, there is a complex interplay with the perceptions of those structures by the foreign policymakers of a country. The tentative hypothesis of this study has been that “energy rivalry between rising military powers in the Indian Ocean has increased tension, though not to the extent of violent confrontation”. They bargain for regional hegemony, but a deterrent effect prevents an armed conflict between two rising powers. The findings suggest that the tentative hypothesis is supported by substantial evidence regarding energy-based rivalry. Amidst aspiration to dominate, especially over security and energy affairs, neither China nor India would entrench towards a “Mutually Assured Destruction” (MAD). Besides acquiring defensive and offensive military capabilities, they are also concerned with diversifying its energy policies, including land routes for energy supply. The possibility of mutually assured destruction provides an incentive for deterrence, preventing violent confrontation over energy issue in the Indian Ocean.
Nishantha et al. (2024) studied this question.