Kalman tracking and parameter estimation of continuous gravitational waves with a pulsar timing array

Continuous nanohertz gravitational waves from individual supermassive black hole binaries may be detectable with pulsar timing arrays. A novel search strategy is developed, wherein intrinsic achromatic spin wandering is tracked simultaneously with the modulation induced by a single gravitational wave source in the pulse times of arrival. A two-step inference procedure is applied within a state-space framework, such that the modulation is tracked with a Kalman filter, which then provides a likelihood for nested sampling. The procedure estimates the static parameters in the problem, such as the sky position of the source, without fitting for ensemble-averaged statistics such as the power spectral density of the timing noise, and therefore complements traditional parameter estimation methods. It also returns the Bayes factor relating a model with a single gravitational wave source to one without, complementing traditional detection methods. It is shown via astrophysically representative software injections in Gaussian measurement noise that the procedure distinguishes a gravitational wave from pure noise down to a characteristic wave strain of h₀ ≈ 2 × 10⁻¹⁵. Full posterior distributions of model parameters are recovered and tested for accuracy. There is a bias of ≈ 0.3 rad in the marginalized one-dimensional posterior for the orbital inclination ι, introduced by dropping the so-called pulsar terms. Smaller biases 10~\ per\ cent are also observed in other static parameters.