Recurrent Convolutional Neural Networks Applied to Short-Term Weather Forecasting by Radar Images

In this study, a computational method is proposed that employs Recurrent Convolutional 1 Neural Networks, utilizing meteorological radar images to forecast storm movement and intensity up 2 to 3 hours ahead, a process known as nowcasting. For this purpose, images from a radar situated in 3 southern Brazil were used. These data are publicly accessible on the website of the National Institute 4 for Space Research (INPE) in Brazil. The approach involves evaluating a spatiotemporal learning 5 recurrent convolutional neural network called PredRNN++. The results were validated through 6 case studies of storms within the radar’s coverage area. To evaluate the performance of the neural 7 network, both visual assessments and metrics such as RMSE and SSIM were employed. The findings 8 indicate that PredRNN++ was effective in simulating the shape and location of the meteorological 9 system.