Rainfall shocks and state repression: How rainfall shocks incentivize governments to commit human rights abuses

We posit that rainfall shocks have an indirect effect on state repression through their impact on food production. Rainfall shocks are associated with reduced food production, which can generate grievances among the populace while also creating incentives for them to mobilize against the regime. In turn, governments employ repression to insulate themselves from these adverse climatic events. We also argue that this relationship is most pronounced in developing states. Analyses are conducted using causal mediation analysis on a global sample of states from 1992 to 2015. We find support for our argument; rainfall shocks have an indirect effect on repression by first reducing food production. We also find that rainfall shocks only have a systematic impact on state repression in developing countries.