Experts’ prediction of item difficulty of multiple-choice questions in the Ethiopian Undergraduate Medicine Licensure Examination

The ability of an expert's item difficulty ratings to predict test-taker actual performance is an important aspect of licensure examinations. Expert judgment is used as a primary source of information for users to make prior decisions to determine the pass rate of test takers. The nature of raters involved in predicting item difficulty is central to set credible standards. Therefore, this study aimed to assess and compare raters' prediction and actual Multiple-Choice Questions' difficulty of the undergraduate medicine licensure examination (UGMLE) in Ethiopia.