Assessing Seepage Dynamics of the GERD for Enhanced Nile Basin Water Management

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) has become a key focus for hydrological research due to its influence on the Nile Basin. Previous studies have revealed that seepage losses from the GERD reservoir, facilitated by fault networks in the fractured terrain, are underestimated. This study builds on earlier findings by analyzing seepage from the GERD's fourth filling, completed on September 28, 2023, reaching 39.8 km³. By June 18, 2024, the reservoir's volume decreased to 30.2 km³, with a total seepage of 9.6 km³. The analysis suggests that as the reservoir area expands, more fractures and faults are accessed, increasing seepage. These results highlight the necessity of integrating seepage analysis into hydrological models to support sustainable water management and informed decision-making in the Nile Basin. Failure to address these factors could lead to inaccurate hydrological predictions and impede regional cooperation.