The importance of an informed choice of CO2-equivalence metrics for contrail avoidance

Abstract. One of the proposed ways to reduce the climate impact of civil aviation is rerouting aircraft to minimise the formation of warming contrails. As this strategy may increase fuel consumption, it would only be beneficial if the climate impact reduction from the avoided contrails exceeds the negative impact of any additional carbon dioxide (CO2) emitted by the rerouted flight. In this study, we calculate the surface temperature response of almost half a million flights that crossed the North Atlantic sector in 2019 and compare it to the temperature response of hypothetical rerouted flights. The climate impacts of contrails and CO2 are assessed through the perspective of CO2-equivalence metrics, represented here as nine combinations of different definitions and time horizons. We estimate that the total emitted CO2 and the persistent contrails formed will have warmed the climate by 17.2 µK in 2039, 13.7 µK in 2069, and 14.1 µK in 2119. Under an idealised scenario where 1 % additional carbon dioxide is enough to reroute all contrail-forming flights and avoid contrail formation completely, total warming would decrease by 4.9 (−28 %), 2.6 (−19 %), and 1.9 (−13 %) µK in 2039, 2069, and 2119, respectively. In most rerouting cases, the results based on the nine different CO2-equivalence metrics agree that rerouting leads to a climate benefit, assuming that contrails are avoided as predicted. But the size of that benefit is very dependent on the choice of CO2-equivalence metrics, contrail efficacy and CO2 penalty. Sources of uncertainty not considered here could also heavily influence the perceived benefit. In about 10 % of rerouting cases, the climate damage resulting from contrail avoidance indicated by CO2-equivalence metrics integrated over a 100-year time horizon is not predicted by metrics integrated over a 20-year time horizon. This study highlights, using North Atlantic flights as a case study, the implications of the choice of CO2-equivalence metrics for contrail avoidance, but the choice of metric implies a focus on a specific climate objective, which is ultimately a political decision.