Contrasting precipitation variations over the Himalayas–southeastern Tibetan Plateau in winter: Insights from the perspectives of anthropogenic warming and Arctic Sea ice variations

Abstract Climate warming has caused widespread glacier retreat across the Tibetan Plateau (TP), with notable impacts observed in both the western Himalayas and southeastern TP. Remarkably, over the past two decades, the rate of glacier mass loss has remained stable or even declined in the western Himalayas, whereas a contrasting trend of acceleration has been evident in the southeastern TP. Among various factors considered, the contrasting winter precipitation pattern across the Himalayas–southeastern TP stands out as an important contributor to the observed differences in glacier mass balances. However, the underlying mechanisms behind this phenomenon remain unclear. Here we provide evidence of a noticeable shift in the climate regime due to anthropogenic warming, altering atmospheric circulation patterns. This, in turn, has led to a significant change in the dominant winter precipitation pattern, favoring the observed contrasting glacier mass balances trend in winter. Additionally, the Barents–Kara Sea ice has emerged as a plausible driver of the interannual variability of the contrasting precipitation pattern. This influence operated by exerting force on the atmosphere and stimulating the Rossby wave propagation. Consequently, it led to the opposite vertical motion and alterations in the moisture budget between the western Himalayas and southeastern TP. Thus, it is crucial to consider the unprecedented anthropogenic warming and Arctic Sea ice variations as potential drivers shaping both past and future glacier behaviors within this domain.