Regionally distinct climatic controls of ice avalanches across the Tibetan Plateau

Widespread glacier retreat across the Tibetan Plateau (TP), driven by global warming, has increased glacier instability and led to more frequent and intensifying ice avalanche (IA) events, posing growing risks to regional infrastructure and fragile high-altitude ecosystems. However, the spatiotemporal sensitivity of IAs to climate warming remains poorly understood across the TP. By compiling long-term records of IAs during 1960‒2020 and data of topography, climate, seismic risk and glacier, this work investigates the mechanisms governing IA activity on the TP. The results indicate that IA events on the TP have accelerated both spatially and temporally, with an overall increase of 2.6 times per decade ( p < 0.05). Precipitation explains the large-scale spatial pattern of IA occurrence ( q = 0.42), but the underlying climatic controls exhibit strong regional heterogeneity. The combined effect of air temperature and precipitation primarily influences IAs in the southern and southeastern TP, air temperature dominates in the northeastern TP, and ground surface freeze–thaw process are the principal triggers across the western and northwestern TP. Notably, since the early 21st century, rising air temperature (0.43 °C per decade, p < 0.05) have become a key driver of the accelerating IA events. These findings underscore the complexity of the multi factor controls on IAs across the TP and understanding these mechanisms is crucial for forecasting cryospheric hazards, assessing risks to regional water resources and ecosystems, and safeguarding critical infrastructure.