Application of a Stochastic Model for Water Demand Assessment under Water Scarcity and Intermittent Networks

Climate change is affecting water resources and other aspects of life in many countries, generating more frequent extreme events. Users react to intermittent supply by implementing local private tanks to collect as much water resources as possible to cope with water distribution suspension periods. Such tanks are commonly overdesigned due to the common perception that water resources are essential for human activities and the general need of users to safeguard their water supplies. This study evaluated the impact of water scarcity and users' self-adaptation strategies on water demand under intermittent flow conditions by implementing an experimental campaign in a real network. The analysis was conducted using a short-term water demand forecast model that reproduces periodic patterns observed at an annual, weekly and daily level to evaluate the adaptation response of users concerning the scarcity of water resources through a comparison between the real pattern of the network and the pattern of local tanks.