Physical-statistical model for forecasting maximum snowmelt-induced stages (the Ob river near the city of Barnaul as a case study)

For the regions with a long-term snow cover, the amount of solid precipitation is one of the driving factors in the formation of floods. The article considers the possibility of using the orographic correction to the velocity of vertical movements of air masses due to the relief in estimating winter precipitation and forecasting maximum snowmelt-induced stages. The significant influence of autumn freezing on the floodplain inundation and, accordingly, maximum water levels of the Ob River near the city of Barnaul is shown.