Short-Term Forecasting of Total Aggregate Demand in Uncontrolled Residential Charging with Electric Vehicles Using Artificial Neural Networks

Electric vehicles are in focus and growing, with new adoptions every day. Its wide use represents a new scenario and challenge for the electrical power system due to the high charge storage requirements. Predicting these loads using artificial neural networks proves to be a very efficient tool for solving time series. This work uses a multilayer perceptron network through supervised backpropagation training with Bayesian regularization to improve generalization, reducing overfit- ting errors. In this research, the aggregation of the actual consumption of 200 homes and 348 plug-in electric vehicles is used in the training and forecasting process, and to validate the method developed, MAPE was used. Short-term forecasts were made considering the year’s four seasons, predicting the next 24 hours of total aggregate demand from homes and vehicles. The methodology presented significant and relevant results using hybrid training for the problem, with the potential to be applied in the real world.