The application of expected points in rugby union

Expected points (xP) is a statistical measure that quantifies the likelihood of teams scoring or conceding points during competition, and has been applied in various ways across multiple sports. To date, a framework for the application of xP in rugby union has not been explored. This paper discussed the application of xP in sports performance analysis and developed a model that may be used within performance analysis in rugby union. Examples were presented to illustrate the application of the proposed novel method in aiding performance measurement and tactical decision making. This method of analysis could introduce a novel approach to performance analysis in rugby union, and provide insightful data which can aid coaches in real-time decision making during competition.