Forecast of changes in the demographic situation in single-industry towns of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia)

Subject. The article investigates the demographic situation in single-industry towns of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia). Objectives. The study aims at assessing and forecasting the demographic situation in the said towns. Methods. We employed demographic analysis, multifactorial regression modeling, comparative and statistical methods. Results. During the period under review, in all the studied single-industry towns there was a steady downward trend in the population. We used 15 exogenous indicators and developed models. Their results showed the most significant factors, i.e. budget revenues of a single-industry town and the number of employees of enterprises. The only factor that has a constant impact on the demographic situation of a single-industry town is the number of city-forming enterprises. To analyze the demographic situation, we introduced 58 more exogenous indicators into the regression model. The simulation results showed that the mortality rate in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) has a negative impact on the increase in the demographic situation. Thus, this indicator is significant both at the level of individual single-industry towns and the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) as a whole. Conclusions. The main factors affecting the demographic situation in single-industry towns are natural growth, the number of city-forming enterprises, city budget revenues, the number of employees of enterprises and organizations, the number of deaths in single-industry towns and mortality rate in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) as a whole.