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To use a traditional probabilistic model (Markov Chain) to predict the railway geometry system deterioration and the impact on safety. Key literaturesRasmussen's model (1997) of the dynamic system, distinguished the advantage of systemic thinking rather than the structural procedure 1.Waterson and Underwood (2014) practically illustrated that the Grayrigg derailment happened due to the switch and crossing failure, their work attribute the risk analysis and accident investigation.Johnson (1980), Hollnagel (2004), and Sklet (2006) stated the definition of safety barriers, for example, the measurement of the safety performance and attitude verified in the barrier functions: the control, the mitigation and the prevention 23.The author developed the improvement of safety barrier performance through the audit work in the HEART model and SRK-framework definition as the evaluation.Duijm (2006; 2009) describes a safety management quality scheme to learn the system deficiencies, the likelihood and uncertainty, and the condition of the deficiency in regard to the measurement at the Audit, then establish the safety integrity level (SIL) and the PFD of the safety barrier.Hollnagel (1998) wrote about the Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis method, the classification of the safety performance shaping factor (PSF) and the attitude toward the human factor as the main contribution of an incident Australian research (Baysari, et.al., 2008) discovered 300 human factor failures from 40 RAIB reports through the Human Factor Analysis and Classification System as an accident investigation method 6.Kim (2013) discovered the causal chain model from 80 RAIB reports through the computer-aid technique.
Huabei Peng (Tue,) studied this question.