Ensemble distribution model of Muga Silkworm (Antheraea assamensis) and its primary host plant Soalu (Litsea monopetala) in defined climate space

Abstract Muga silkworm is one of the most economically and culturally important insect found in northeastern region and has immense future potential for entrepreneurship development owing to its sericogenic nature. The distribution of Muga SilkWorm (MSW) in wild are extremely important determinant for rearing a disease resistant domesticated variety that can significantly improve the yield of the later in terms of silk production. This paper aims to explore the distribution of the wild MSW in northeastern part of India in connection with the distribution of its primary host plant viz., Litsea monopetala Soalu in wild. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) have been used to know the potential distribution of MSW in historical climate scenario and also the impact of future climate has been assessed using a single climate model (CMCC-ESM2) with four different scenarios (SSPs). The climate space was defined in two dimensional space using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to simplify the models. Altogether two model algorithms were used to get the final ensemble model for both the MSW and the two primary host plants. The model performed for MSW was found to be good with average AUC value greater than 0.80. On the contrary, the model performed for Litsea monopetala was found to be excellent with average AUC value greater than 0.90. Similarly, the ensemble models performed using future climatic data under the CMCC model for MSW have shown AUC values within acceptable range (0.78-0.82), whereas, models of the host plant have shown AUC values in higher range i.e. within excellent model category (0.90-0.95). Thus, in this reduced climate dimension, the potential distribution of the MSW has also been compared with four different climate scenarios under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). The overlapped potential area of both the MSW and its host plants in NE India has shown a very critical dynamics in future climatic condition projected for 2040-2060.