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March 29, 2026InsectsOpen Access

Predicting the Potential Distribution of Amyelois transitella (Walker) in China Under Climate Change Using a Biomod2-Based Ensemble Model

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Authors

SLS. T. LiLHLin HuangTYTao Yang

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Overview

Predicts habitat suitability of Amyelois transitella in China, indicating climate change impacts on agricultural biosecurity.

Key Points

  • The aim is to predict the potential distribution of the Navel Orangeworm under climate change scenarios in China.
  • Utilized the Biomod2 ensemble model platform for habitat suitability predictions
  • Assessed prediction accuracy using TSS and AUC metrics
  • Conducted spatially stratified cross-validation for model transferability
  • Identified thermal factors influencing distribution
  • Predicted contraction of optimal habitats in southern China due to heat stress
  • Expansion of suitable areas into temperate regions projected
  • Model accuracy indicated by TSS = 0.898 and AUC = 0.978
  • Moderate spatial transferability confirmed with median validation AUC = 0.60–0.75

Cite This Study

Li et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69c8c371de0f0f753b39e310https://doi.org/10.3390/insects17040364
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