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June 10, 2026InsectsOpen Access

Projected Northward Expansion and Southern Core-Habitat Contraction of Zeugodacus tau in China Under Climate Change: An Optimized MaxEnt Analysis

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Authors

YDYifu DuZLZ B Li

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Overview

Optimized modeling reveals changes in climatic suitability of Zeugodacus tau in China, suggesting urgent pest management needs.

Key Points

  • This study aims to quantify the effects of climate change on the potential climatic suitability of Zeugodacus tau in China.
  • Used an optimized MaxEnt model combined with GIS-based centroid tracking.
  • Projected climatic suitability under historical climate and future scenarios (SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, SSP5–8.5) for the 2050s and 2070s.
  • Identified environmental variables, particularly mean temperature and diurnal range, influencing suitability.
  • Projected a 31.61% decline in the highly suitable core area in southern China under the SSP5–8.5 scenario.
  • Indicated northward expansion of low- and moderate-suitability areas into temperate regions.
  • Showed a centroid shift of approximately 168 km inland and northwest toward the Wuling Mountains.

Cite This Study

Du et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a28ff336f82f25be989c298https://doi.org/10.3390/insects17060596
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