Climate-Driven Changes in Potential Suitable Habitat of Protegira songi in China Under Future Climate Scenarios

Protegira songi Chen and Zhang is a monophagous defoliating pest that feeds exclusively on Eucommia ulmoides Oliv., an economically and medicinally important tree species widely cultivated in China. Climate change may influence the potential suitable habitat of this pest, with implications for future monitoring and management. In this study, a Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model integrating occurrence records and environmental variables was used to evaluate current habitat suitability and project future changes under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios. The minimum temperature of the coldest month (Bio6) and precipitation of the driest month (Bio14) were identified as key climatic factors associated with potential habitat suitability. Currently, suitable habitats were estimated to cover approximately 20.58% of China’s land area, with highly suitable regions mainly distributed in central and southwestern China. Future projections indicated that potential suitable habitats would undergo spatial redistribution, with core suitable areas remaining relatively stable while peripheral regions showed more variation. Under SSP245, the suitable habitat area exhibited the largest increase by the 2090s, accompanied by an overall southward shift in the centroid of suitable habitat. These findings improve understanding of climate-driven changes in the potential suitable habitat of P. songi and provide a scientific basis for climate-informed monitoring and adaptive pest management.