Predicting the Spatiotemporal Distribution Shifts of Zeugodacus tau (Diptera: Tephritidae) in China

Zeugodacus (Bactrocera) tau (Walker) (Z. tau) is an economically important tephritid pest in Asia. We modelled its climate-associated habitat suitability in China under current and future scenarios using an optimized MaxEnt model, global occurrence records, and WorldClim variables. The most influential predictors were precipitation of the warmest quarter (Bio18), precipitation of the wettest month (Bio13), annual mean temperature (Bio1), mean diurnal temperature range (Bio2), and temperature seasonality (Bio4). Under current climatic conditions, the suitable habitats of Z. tau in China were widely distributed across South China, Central China, East China, and Southwest China, with a total area of 272.08 × 104 km2, accounting for 28.34% of the national land area. Future projections indicated a redistribution of suitability classes rather than a uniform range expansion: moderate-suitability habitat generally increased, whereas high-suitability habitat decreased or fluctuated, and the centroid of suitable habitats generally shifted northwestward and northeastward, with slight fluctuations across different periods. These projections suggest that climate change may alter the spatial pattern of climate-associated habitat suitability for Z. tau in China, providing a basis for prioritizing surveillance and quarantine efforts in areas showing increased future suitability.