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March 1, 2026AgricultureOpen Access

Predicting Impact of Climate Change on Eastern Honeybee (Apis cerana) Distribution in China Using Biomod2 Ensemble Model

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Authors

YCYongpeng ChenXMXianqiang MaoZZZhijun Zhao

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Overview

This analysis predicts changes in eastern honeybee habitats due to climate change, suggesting conservation strategies in China.

Key Points

  • The research aims to forecast the impact of climate change on the distribution of the eastern honeybee in China.
  • Employed an ensemble species distribution model (Biomod2) with ten algorithms.
  • Projected suitable habitats under current (2020s) and future (2060s and 2100s) climate scenarios.
  • Evaluated model performance using metrics like AUC and TSS.
  • Current suitable habitat spans approximately 1.47 million km², mainly south of the Yangtze River.
  • Future projections indicate a potential net habitat loss of 42.25% by 2100 under SSP585 scenario.
  • The model identifies precipitation of the wettest month and mean diurnal temperature range as key environmental factors.

Cite This Study

Chen et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69a3ddf3ec16d51705d305d8https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture16050534
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