ABSTRACT Climate change and environmental disasters can jointly impact species distributions and ecosystem stability, including pollinators and the resources they rely on. We used occurrence and climate data to predict the distribution of Apis mellifera in the Doce River Basin, south‐east Brazil, under baseline and future scenarios (2050). Given the high prevalence of apiculture in the basin, where it supports local livelihoods and contributes to the regional economy, anticipating these shifts is important for adapting beekeeping and pollination‐dependent production to future climates. We also quantified how much of the projected climate‐suitable area overlaps the spatially explicit mining tailings footprint associated with the 2015 Samarco dam collapse. Despite A. mellifera 's plasticity and wide distribution, our models project a 38% reduction in climate‐suitable area across the basin under future scenarios. In contrast, the climate‐suitable area within the mining tailings footprint is projected to decline only 8% from baseline to future scenarios, indicating comparatively higher stability within that restricted subset of the basin. Importantly, because A. mellifera is managed, occurrence records may partly reflect hive placement, and our analysis does not isolate a causal ‘dam effect’ on suitability. Beyond riparian vegetation recovery, restoration strategies should promote native pollinators by providing floral and non‐floral resources, increasing nesting site availability, and reducing pesticide use, strengthening native pollination services and reducing the likelihood of managed honeybees becoming overly dominant in sensitive or recovering habitats. Integrating land cover, resource availability, and biotic interactions into future analyses, while expanding monitoring to both managed and native bees, can improve ecological risk anticipation and support climate adaptation planning for pollination‐dependent production and natural systems.
Mota et al. (Sat,) studied this question.