National-Scale Analysis of Transit-Oriented Development Levels at High-Speed Rail Stations in China

Abstract Transit-Oriented Development (TOD), a sustainable urban development strategy emphasizing integration between transportation and land-use planning centered around public transportation hubs, is increasingly employed around High-Speed Rail (HSR) stations. Despite this trend, there is a lack of quantitative evaluation on factors affecting TOD levels around HSR stations, and quantitative assessment on TOD levels around HSR stations at a national scale remains limited. This study investigates TOD around HSR stations in 31 Chinese provincial capital cities. Utilizing open-source data and linear regression analysis, we measure TOD levels and identify key influencing factors, specifically focusing on economic, policy, and resident population variables. Results show higher TOD levels in eastern coastal regions compared to central and western inland regions, with a disparity between inner-city and suburban HSR stations. Inner-city TOD is influenced by provincial economic structure, while suburban TOD is primarily impacted by HSR-supportive policies. Given the trend of constructing HSR stations in suburban areas, the study highlights the potential for improving TOD around suburban HSR stations through flexible policy guidance, emphasizing the need for aligned policies to harness HSR stations for urban expansion and multi-polar urban development.