Modeling The Impact Of Economic Factors On Electoral Results: A Predictive Approach To Ghana's 2024 Elections

Introduction – Elections are a cornerstone of democratic societies, enabling citizens to express their preferences and shape the direction of their governments. Economic conditions, political dynamics, and social factors often play pivotal roles in influencing voter behavior and determining electoral outcomes, making elections a key area of study in understanding governance and policy change. Objectives – This study examines how key economic factors like inflation, unemployment, and poverty influence election results in Ghana. It also looks at how these economic elements shape voter choices and predicts the possible outcomes of the 2024 general elections using past data. Methodology – The study used historical economic and political data from 1992 to 2023, applying statistical models like ARIMA (Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average) to forecast future election outcomes. Economic indicators such as inflation and unemployment were included to study their relationship with voter behavior. Findings - The results show that economic factors significantly impact voter turnout and party vote share. High inflation and unemployment rates tend to reduce voter support for incumbent parties. The model also predicts possible outcomes for the 2024 election based on these economic trends. Conclusion and Recommendation – The study concludes that improving economic conditions, such as reducing unemployment, could positively influence electoral outcomes for incumbents. It is recommended that policymakers focus on stabilizing the economy to enhance electoral success.