Links between weather variability and Dengue outbreaks in Sao Paulo, Brazil

Mosquito-borne diseases are among the most dangerous threats for all people living in tropical areas and Dengue fever is one of the fastest growing disease in the world (Watts et al. 2019). Previous research has shown that the highest incidence of mosquito-borne diseases is associated with a particular type of weather (usually wet and hot) as mosquitos activity and development are highly dependent on meteorological conditions. However, short-term associations (on the scale of days up to a few weeks) have been less understood.In this study, we collected weekly data on the incidence of Dengue on a municipality level (obtained from Secretaria de Estado da Sade de So Paulo). These were aggregated into 17 Regional Health Departments (DRSs) in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil, 20162022 and standardized by population count in each DRS. Additionally, environmental and socioeconomic characteristics of the 17 DRSs were collected and matched with ERA5-based weather characteristics (ambient temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and precipitation). Consequently, we employed a mixed meta-regression model with a random effect in order to analyse the links between Dengue incidence and weather variables, while taking into account the modifying effects of environmental and socioeconomic characteristics.Our preliminary results suggest the largest relative risk of Dengue incidence at week 0 to 3 after a warm and humid period and up to 12 weeks after a heavy rainfall. Further analysis is needed to identify spatial differences in these patterns based on socioeconomic conditions. This study will contribute to better understanding of short-term links between weather variability and Dengue outbreaks.Watts, N et al. (2019). The 2019 report of The Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: ensuring that the health of a child born today is not defined by a changing climate. The Lancet, 394(10211), 18361878. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(19)32596-