Exploring the trends of Urban Scale and Urban Vitality on S&D Balance in the Yangtze River Delta, China from 2015 to 2025

Abstract Analysis of the spatiotemporal trends of urban scale and urban vitality on ecosystem services balance provides an essential basis for regional sustainable development. Based on multi-source big data, the actual levels of urban scale and urban vitality of Yangtze River Delta, China are constructed, solving the previous problem that statistical datasets cannot fully demonstrate the real-time and real scope of the scale and vitality. Moreover, the article develops an integrated quantitative and strategic research system including spatiotemporal correlation, predictive scenario simulation and importance-performance analysis. Results show that urban vitality increases ESs demand without hurting ESs supply, as seen by its favorable impact on the S&D ratio. On the other hand, because cities occupy resources and seize land, they reduce the availability of ESs. Second, the economic priority scenario had the greatest influence on the S&D ratio, reaching -37.5%. This resulted in Zhejiang Province's S&D value approaching 1 (the lowest S&D value being 2.044). In Anhui, Jiangsu Province, and Shanghai, the ecological priority scenario had the most impact on the S&D ratio, raising the S&D value to 0.58~1.057. Third, although urban scale and ecological priority scenarios balance S&D by enhancing ESs supply in northeastern YRD, urban vitality and economic priority scenarios complement each other by improving ESs demand in southwest YRD.