Spatiotemporal Evolution and Driving Mechanisms of Ecosystem Service Value–Urbanization Coupling Coordination in the Yangtze River Delta

The interactive coupling mechanism between ecosystem service value (ESV) and urbanization has emerged as a critical research focus in ecological security and sustainable development. This study quantifies the ESV of prefecture-level cities by leveraging remote sensing data and socioeconomic statistics from the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region spanning 2006–2020. It constructs a multidimensional evaluation index system for urbanization. We systematically assess both systems’ spatiotemporal evolution and interactions by employing entropy weighting, comprehensive indexing, and coupling coordination models. Furthermore, Geo-detectors and Geographical and Temporal Weighted Regression (GTWR) models are applied to identify driving factors influencing their coordinated development. Key findings include (1) the total amount of ESV in the YRD exhibits a fluctuating decline, primarily due to a steady increase in urbanization levels; (2) the coordination degree between ESV and urbanization demonstrates phased growth, transitioning to a “basic coordination” stage post-2009; (3) spatially, coordination patterns follow a “core–periphery” hierarchy, marked by radial diffusion and gradient disparities, with most cities being of the ESV-guidance type; (4) GTWR analysis reveals spatiotemporal heterogeneity in driving factors, ranked by intensity as Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) > Economic density (ECON) > Degree of openness (OPEN) > Scientific and technological level (TECH) > Industrial structure upgrading index (ISUI) > Government investment efforts (GOV). This study advances methodological frameworks for analyzing ecosystem–urbanization interactions in metropolitan regions, while offering empirical support for ecological planning, dynamic redline adjustments, and territorial spatial optimization in the YRD, particularly within the Ecological Green Integrated Development Demonstration Zone.