Impact of Global Warming on Tourism Values: Evidence from Mobile Phone Signaling Data in China

Abstract We estimate the impact of global warming on tourism based on mobile phone signaling data of more than 300 million individuals in China. The signaling data enable identification of both the push and pull effects of temperatures in the origin and destinations, avoiding the potential bias caused by focusing solely on the origin or destination. Based on the data from all the 330 cities to Inner Mongolia, the most popular summer vacation destinations in China, we find that one additional heat day (daily average temperature above 28°C) at the origin results in a 1.3% increase in tourist arrivals from the origin to the destination. At the destination, one additional comfortable day (daily average temperature between 20 to 26°C) leads to a 0.5% increase in tourist arrivals, while one additional heat days over 26°C leads to a 3.6% decrease in tourist arrivals. The push effects of heat days diminish with increasing travel distance and cost, whereas infrastructure enhancements at the destination reinforce the pull effects of comfortable days. Heterogeneity analysis shows that females and tourists over 29 years old are more responsive to comfortable temperatures at the destination, while tourist below 29 years old and over 50 years old are more sensitive to heat days in the origin cities. Projections indicate that global warming could reduce Inner Mongolia’s annual tourism revenue by 33-56 billion RMB by 2100, equivalent to 9.7-16.8% of its tourism revenue in 2023.