The value of computed tomography-based radiomics for predicting malignant pleural effusions

Background Malignant pleural effusion (MPE) is a common clinical problem that requires cytological and/or histological confirmation obtained by invasive examination to establish a definitive diagnosis. Radiomics is rapidly evolving and can provide a non-invasive tool to identify MPE. Objectives We aimed to develop a model based on radiomic features extracted from unenhanced chest computed tomography (CT) images and investigate its value in predicting MPE. Method This retrospective study included patients with pleural effusions between January 2016 and June 2020. All patients underwent a chest CT scanning and medical thoracoscopy after artificial pneumothorax. Cases were divided into a training cohort and a test cohort for modelling and verifying respectively. The Mann-Whitney U test and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) were applied to determine the optimal features. We built a radiomics model based on support vector machines (SVM) and evaluated its performance using ROC and calibration curve analysis. Results Twenty-nine patients with MPE and fifty-two patients with non-MPE were enrolled. A total of 944 radiomic features were quantitatively extracted from each sample and reduced to 14 features for modeling after selection. The AUC of the radiomics model was 0.96 (95% CI: 0.912-0.999) and 0.86 (95% CI: 0.657~1.000) in the training and test cohorts, respectively. The calibration curves for model were in good agreement between predicted and actual data. Conclusions The radiomics model based on unenhanced chest CT has good performance for predicting MPE and may provide a powerful tool for doctors in clinical decision-making.