Science-based exit from stringent countermeasures against COVID-19: Mortality prediction using immune landscape between 2021 and 2022 in Japan

Stringent public health and social measures against COVID-19 infection were implemented to avoid an overwhelming hospital caseload and excessive number of deaths, especially among elderly people. We analyzed population-level immunity and predicted mortality, calculated as the potential number of deaths on a given calendar date in Japan, to develop a science-based exit strategy from stringent control measures.