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To estimate the total numbers of COVID-19 cases and deaths prevented through individual risk reduction following nationwide vaccine rollout in Japan.

August 11, 2022The Lancet Regional Health - Western PacificOpen Access

Number of averted COVID-19 cases and deaths attributable to reduced risk in vaccinated individuals in Japan

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To estimate the total numbers of COVID-19 cases and deaths prevented through individual risk reduction following nationwide vaccine rollout in Japan.
Analyzed nationwide surveillance data of confirmed SARS-CoV-2 cases from the Health Center Real-time Information-sharing System (March 3–November 30, 2021) and public mortality reports (March 24–November 30, 2021) in Japan.
Extracted age- and sex-stratified vaccination coverage from national registry systems across the epidemic's fifth wave.
Calculated averted cases and deaths using a statistical modeling framework that multiplied daily risk differences between unvaccinated and vaccinated cohorts by the vaccinated population size.
Vaccination prevented an estimated 564,596 (95% CI: 477,020–657,525) COVID-19 cases and 18,622 (95% CI: 6,522–33,762) deaths during the fifth epidemic wave driven by the Delta variant.
The nationwide immunization program yielded an estimated 33% reduction in overall cases and a 67% reduction in mortality, with the highest averted counts observed in adults aged 65 years and older.
Females experienced greater vaccine-attributable protection against infection than males, whereas males had a higher number of averted deaths.

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Implication

Modeling study reveals substantial reductions in COVID-19 infections and deaths in Japan, highlighting the vital protective impact of national mRNA immunization campaigns.

Cite This Study

Kayano et al. (2022) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a7ccfa2a2d66b66445bc4c2 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lanwpc.2022.100571

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Implication

Modeling study reveals substantial reductions in COVID-19 infections and deaths in Japan, highlighting the vital protective impact of national mRNA immunization campaigns.

Number of averted COVID-19 cases and deaths attributable to reduced risk in vaccinated individuals in Japan

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Discussion

Implication

Cite This Study

Number of averted COVID-19 cases and deaths attributable to reduced risk in vaccinated individuals in Japan

Key Points

Discussion

Implication

Cite This Study

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