The impact of China’s total carbon emission control policy on low carbon total factor productivity

The evaluation of the policy effect of total carbon emission control policy (TCP) is crucial to achieve high-quality economic development in China. This paper measures the low-carbon total factor productivity (LCTFP) of 282 Chinese cities from 2010 to 2021, and examines the impact of TCP on LCTFP through differences-in-differences (DID) method. The results show that TCP can effectively improve LCTFP in policy implementation areas. TCP has a stronger LCTFP promotion effect on eastern cities, resource-based cities and higher-level cities. Technological progress effect and industrial structure effect are important channels for TCP to improve LCTFP. TCP has a negative spatial spillover effect on LCTFP. This paper provides valuable references to promote the implementation of TCP in China.