Influence Analysis of Material Parameter Uncertainties on the Stability Safety Factor of Concrete Gravity Dams: A Probabilistic Method

Anti-sliding stability safety is a critical issue that must be given sufficient and widespread attention during the entire lifecycle of gravity dams. The calculated anti-sliding stability safety factor (ASS-SF) is usually compared with the allowable value required by the standards in the traditional method, which ignores the influence of material parameter uncertainties and leads to unreasonable safety evaluation results. Therefore, the nonlinear functional relationship between the stability safety factor (SF) and the random variable parameters is constructed based on the response surface equations, and the distribution types of SF sequences calculated by the Monte Carlo sampling are determined, then a probabilistic stability evaluation method for concrete gravity dams is proposed. Engineering application shows that the calculated SF obeys the normal distribution; the minimum guaranteed rate of different sliding paths in a gravity dam is 86.66%, and the guaranteed rate for the overload safety factor (OSF) is 36.00%. The results imply that a guaranteed rate for the allowable value of the ASS-SF should be provided when making the stability safety evaluation of the dams, especially the OSF. The outcome of this research will advance the understanding of stability evaluation of concrete dams, and reduce the potential risk of sliding instability of concrete dams.