Reliability analysis of bus network based on stochastic demand

The reliability of bus network is an important factor affecting the choice of travel. It is also an important index for the adjustment of bus network and the optimization of operation and scheduling strategy, which is of great practical significance to enhance the attraction of bus. In the actual traffic system, the bus network will face various challenges, such as weather changes, traffic accidents and so on. People will change their original travel plans, leading to fluctuations in demand, causing road congestion, vehicle delays, increased travel time, and ultimately reducing reliability. In order to improve the reliability of bus network, the randomness of demand will be considered in this study. The stochastic demand is depicted through different scenarios, and the transit assignment model based on line node strategy is established. According to the results, the reliability of the bus network is analysed from two aspects: travel time and waiting time, and the reliability improvement strategy is proposed. The example analysis shows that adjusting the bus frequency based on the weighted passenger flow can effectively improve the reliability and the operation efficiency of bus network.