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The many small inhabited islands of the Sundabarn region in north east India and Bangladesh, are subject to sea water flooding during cyclones. The objective is to predict flood risk so that improvements to flood defences can be prioritised. There are a few records of flood heights at a very limited set of locations, but there are long term data on cyclones that can be used to drive a simulation model to estimate flood risk at any points in the Sundarbans. The cyclone data is used to fit a stochastic model for cyclones. The cyclone model is combined with a deterministic storm surge model that provides sea level at the boundary of the Sundarbans. A hydraulic routing model, MIKE–21, is then used to predict water levels over a grid of interior points. The combined deterministic surge and routing models are approximated by a regression type model, so the stochastic simulation can quickly generate thousand of years of flood events. Results from a simulation are presented. References A. Degenhardt, A. V Metcalfe, and S. Parsons. Combined river and sea flooding. 34th MAFF Conference of River and Coastal Engineers, Keele University, 30 June to 2 July 1999. S. K. Dube. Prediction of storm surges in the Bay of Bengal. Trop. Cyclone Res. Rev. 1.1 (2012), pp. 67–74. doi: 10.6057/2012TCRR01.08 R. Gayathri, P. K. Bhaskaran, and D. Sen. Numerical study on storm surge and associated coastal inundation for 2009 AILA Cyclone in the head Bay of Bengal. Aquatic Proc. 4 (2015), pp. 404–411. doi: 10.1016/j.aqpro.2015.02.054 A. F. Rahman, D. Dragoni, and B. El-Masri. Response of the Sundarbans coastline to sea level rise and decreased sediment flow: A remote sensing assessment. Remote Sen. Environ. 115.12 (2011), pp. 3121–3128. doi: 10.1016/j.rse.2011.06.019 WCRP Global Sea Level Budget Group. Global sea level budget 1993–present. Earth Sys. Sci. Data 10.3 (2018), pp. 1551–1590. doi: 10.5194/essd-10-1551-2018
Need et al. (Wed,) studied this question.