Simulation of urban sprawl and the analysis of the sustainability of developments using Cellular Automata and Remote-Sensing: Findings from Kurunegala, Sri Lanka

Cellular Automata (CA) models are effective methods for simulating land use change. This research used CA to model the pattern of urban sprawl in the Kurunegala district in Sri Lanka, within the period from 2022 to 2027. The model was developed using land use land cover (LULC) data ranging from 2007 to 2022. Urban sprawl prediction models are extensively used in contemporary studies, with the majority of models emphasizing the technical components of modeling. However, most of these models do not assess their simulated results against the real development potential or any suggested development potential. The objective of this research is to simulate the urban sprawl in Kurunegala and compare the results with the assessment of development suitability, which will also be carried out using the zone factors assigned in the Urban Development Plans prepared by the UDA (Urban Development Authority) Kurunegala. According to the modeling findings, urban growth in Kurunegala will spread out during the next five years, covering an approximate area of 309.534 square kilometers by 2027. The simulation showed that the distribution of urban sprawl aligns with the suitability of the region for development, as established by the study done using the Arc Map model builder. Nevertheless, the forecast for the zone factor in 2030 does not completely align with the predicted outcomes.